In this mock I weighted strong names linked with teams, past tendencies and off course signability.
2. Seattle Mariners - Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
The Mariners are looking for hitter and are gonna get their wish with Rendon falling out of the race for the #1 pick. Rendon is the best college hitter since Evan Longoria and is as polish an amateur as it can get. This is an area where the Major league team needs strengthening but its not a "need" pick it just happens that BPA falls into their needs. The Mariners have done their due diligence and worked out Lindor, with reports saying it was impressive, but the only thing that could prevent Rendon from being the pick would be his Medicals but reports suggest they are on the hands of teams and nothing worrisome has come up.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks - Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
This would be the first shocker if you will. I know its been said multiple times that the D Backs are on the Hultzen express for some time but reports suggest that they have been enamored with Bauer lately and he had an impressive last start before the draft. It wouldn't be a shock pick from a board standpoint but everybody assumes that with Hultzen on the board Arizona pounces on him but thats not as clear as it was earlier in the spring.
The Orioles have been on Bundy all spring but they didn't anticipate Hultzen being available, as I said everybody assumes Arizona is his floor. Hultzen is from their back yard and they had success with the last time they drafted a college lefty with the 4th overall pick. Hultzen should be more affordable than Bundy too which is not to say thats the reason the Orioles would pick him over Bundy.
5. Kansas City Royals - Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso HS
Every Royals fan you see commenting on the their team's likely selection in the draft wants the local HS hero Bubba Starling but all the reports suggest that the Royals have a couple of other priorities in their mind which include pitching first and fore most. Bundy is considered by many the best pitcher in this draft, he has the best useful stuff and has the polish that suggest he could move as fast through a system as a college pitcher would. He carries a hefty price tag but the Royals spend in the draft and are not afraid of big money players.
6. Washington Nationals - Bubba Starling, OF, Gardner-Edgerton HS, Gardner, KS
Washington is in a good position they can get whomever falls out of the top 6th. Lately they have been on Starling, the 5-tool HS CF from Kansas.They would love to pair Harper with Starling but Harper is much more advance and Starling stands to take sometime in the minors and learn to make adjustments. Washington wants to make a splash so grabbing the most headline making prospect in the draft is a good way to start.
7. Arizona Diamondbacks (Loux - unsigned) - Francisco Lindor, SS, Monteverde Academy
Lindor worked out for the Mariners and had a good showing he also worked for the D Backs and reports suggest that if the College arms they like don't fall he's likely their top candidate. They have been talking for a while that a high price tag won't be an issue with this unprotected pick though in an ideal world they would like to get the sense of what the player is looking for.
8. Cleveland Indians - Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt
Third straight college arm in the first but this is a good one. Reports suggest that they are looking for an arm with this pick and are willing to spend but picking Gray here would allow them to sign more upside players in the later rounds and have multiple eggs in one basket not one boiling egg in one basket.
9. Chicago Cubs - Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow HS
Last year Chicago shocked everybody, even people that follow the draft form more that 30 years were shocked, so what are they gonna do for an encore? At least this year the name of the prospect they draft will be known prior to the selection. Archie Bradley would give the Cubs a high ceiling power arm in the mold of once uber Cubs prospect Kerry Wood. Bradley has a hefty price tag and an scholarship to play QB for OU but he is a better baseball prospect than football and the Cubs have the financial ability to pay the price
10. San Diego Padres (Whitson - unsigned) - Matt Barnes, RHP, UCONN
San Diego have been scouting Uconn lately this spring and Barnes has stood out. He had a good showing in the cape and team USA last summer. San Diego gets one of the better College pitchers in the draft and at this point is singable.
11. Houston Astros - Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech
A late rumor had the Astros trying to work a pre-deal with a lefty who ranks below the top 50 on many boards in Chris Reed but they shut down the rumor down and said they will go BPA. They've been on Jed Bradley all spring and would love to get him at this spot. They also like Archie Bradley(no relation) but he figures to be gone at this point.
12. Milwaukee Brewers - Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Spring Valley HS, SC
The rumor on this pick is that they are looking a pitching and like Barnes and Jed Bradley but both are gone. In a perfect world they'd prefer a college pitcher but the ones left are not superior to the HS arms that they been connected to. Guerrieri is one of them and his arsenal fits well with what the Brewers like.
13. New York Mets - Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas
This would the ideal pick for the Mets who have been on the Texas righty a lot this spring and should give the Mets another fast to the bigs RHP. Its been reported that the Mets will have a chance to spend in this draft but like in the case with the Indians, spreading the wealth is their likely path.
14. Florida Marlins - Levi Michael, SS, UNC
The Marlins have been connected to a host of college player this spring and it seems they want players that are gonna help then sooner rather than later. Michael fits that mold and reports suggest they've been on him this spring.
15. Milwaukee Brewers (Covey - unsigned) - Mikie Mahtook, OF, LSU
This would be and ideal pick for the Brewers who have been on Mahtook all spring. There have been scares lately that the Cubs and Marlins are looking at him so the Brewers may decide to go ahead with Mahtook with the 12th pick and wait for their pitcher with this pick.
16. Los Angeles Dodgers - Robert Stephenson, RHP, Alhambra HS
The Dodgers day-to-day operations are being watch by MLB and it doesn't look like that will be solved any time soon so whoever they pick her has to sign for slot. Last year the shocked everybody and went with the unsignable Zach Lee who ended up signing for a big bonus but the Dodgers can't do the same this year because MLB has to approve the bonus they give out and MLB won't approve an above slot bonus. If Stephenson signs for slot he's the likely pick and would be a very good pick under the circumstances.
18. Oakland Athletics - George Springer, OF, UConn
19. Boston Red Sox (V. Martinez - DET) - Josh Bell, OF, Jesuit HS
20. Colorado Rockies - C.J. Cron, 1b, Utah
21. Toronto Blue Jays - Daniel Norris, LHP, Science Hill HS, Johnson City, Tenn
Toronto has been link with a host of players but Norris is the one that sounds the strongest. A high price tag has floated prior to the draft but that wont stop the Blue Jays from drafting him.
The Cardinals would love to see Norris fall to them but the Blue Jays are hot and heavy after him making that scenario unlikely. They have been on Owens as an alternative and would likely scoop him up with this pick.
Fresh off getting Starling with their first pick the National would love it if a player they considered with the 6th pick falls to them. They are one of the teams that has been on him all spring and wouldn't pass him here.
The Rays draft bonanza begins with a local high ceiling arm that they likely can sign. This draft will be property the Rays picking 10 times before Detroit gets to pick the Rays will likely diversify their portfolio and mix high upside picks with higher probability picks.
Like Washington, San Diego is very happy that a player they considered for the 10th pick fell to them at 25th. There have been a lot of chatter in the 14-20 range for Spagenberg but I have a lot of trouble placing him with a team and passing on higher rated talent. This is a more logical spot for him.
The Reds are one of the teams hard to pegged for me. A lot of reports suggest they are in on college pitching but my guess is they wouldn't over draft someone just for the sake of of drafting a college pitcher. Wong would be higher than this in their board making it difficult for them to pass him up.
Atlanta has had a lot of success drafting from their back yard and reports suggest they are looking a athletes in the draft. They have Smith high on their list and would need to get him now as he won't make it to their next pick.
29. San Francisco Giants - Joe Ross, RHP, Bishop O'Dowd HS, Oakland
A lot of reports suggest the Giants have made Ross their top target and would pounce on him if he's there. He has a UCLA commitment but the Giants have deep enough pockets to be able to sign the local product.
The Twins have two traits for their first round pick. One is polish college strike throwers and high upside HS athletes. In this scenario I have them picking Story who is one of the better HS athletes in the draft and would give them an up the middle prospect. They have two picks in the supp round and could get a college arm comparable to the ones available here. They've been on Story and he probably is not available with their next pick.
31. Tampa Bay Rays (R. Soriano - NYY) - Brian Goodwin, OF, Miami Dade JC
Goodwin is one of the better athletes in the draft something the Rays covet. He started the spring slow but has recovered and is now getting interest in the back of the 1st round.
The Rays do well with HS arms and Howard is one of the better available. He also has a high price tag but the Rays figure to take a gamble with one of their first round picks. He fits their mold of project able HS arms and would give them another one in the 1st round.
33. Texas Rangers (C. Lee - PHI) - Travis Harrison, 3B/OF, Tustin HS
The Rangers have shown interest on Brandon Nimmo and would be high on their list with this pick but he's gone. They have shown interest in Harrison who is getting interest in the back of the first and would give them a power hitting HS bat. He's likely to command an above slot deal but the Rangers have enough money to get it done.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates - Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
The Pirates are considering Cole, Hultzen and Rendon in that order. Cole didn't pitch well in his last start before the draft but in his prior start he was magnificent. The stuff is too good to pass up while there are some questions about his delivery and lack of domination of the college hitters, more evident when his teammate Trevor Bauer demolished them, but if there is a pitcher likely to be a front line starter out of this draft its Cole.
2. Seattle Mariners - Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
The Mariners are looking for hitter and are gonna get their wish with Rendon falling out of the race for the #1 pick. Rendon is the best college hitter since Evan Longoria and is as polish an amateur as it can get. This is an area where the Major league team needs strengthening but its not a "need" pick it just happens that BPA falls into their needs. The Mariners have done their due diligence and worked out Lindor, with reports saying it was impressive, but the only thing that could prevent Rendon from being the pick would be his Medicals but reports suggest they are on the hands of teams and nothing worrisome has come up.
This would be the first shocker if you will. I know its been said multiple times that the D Backs are on the Hultzen express for some time but reports suggest that they have been enamored with Bauer lately and he had an impressive last start before the draft. It wouldn't be a shock pick from a board standpoint but everybody assumes that with Hultzen on the board Arizona pounces on him but thats not as clear as it was earlier in the spring.
4. Baltimore Orioles - Danny Hultzen, LHP, UVA
The Orioles have been on Bundy all spring but they didn't anticipate Hultzen being available, as I said everybody assumes Arizona is his floor. Hultzen is from their back yard and they had success with the last time they drafted a college lefty with the 4th overall pick. Hultzen should be more affordable than Bundy too which is not to say thats the reason the Orioles would pick him over Bundy.
5. Kansas City Royals - Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso HS
Every Royals fan you see commenting on the their team's likely selection in the draft wants the local HS hero Bubba Starling but all the reports suggest that the Royals have a couple of other priorities in their mind which include pitching first and fore most. Bundy is considered by many the best pitcher in this draft, he has the best useful stuff and has the polish that suggest he could move as fast through a system as a college pitcher would. He carries a hefty price tag but the Royals spend in the draft and are not afraid of big money players.
6. Washington Nationals - Bubba Starling, OF, Gardner-Edgerton HS, Gardner, KS
Washington is in a good position they can get whomever falls out of the top 6th. Lately they have been on Starling, the 5-tool HS CF from Kansas.They would love to pair Harper with Starling but Harper is much more advance and Starling stands to take sometime in the minors and learn to make adjustments. Washington wants to make a splash so grabbing the most headline making prospect in the draft is a good way to start.
7. Arizona Diamondbacks (Loux - unsigned) - Francisco Lindor, SS, Monteverde Academy
Lindor worked out for the Mariners and had a good showing he also worked for the D Backs and reports suggest that if the College arms they like don't fall he's likely their top candidate. They have been talking for a while that a high price tag won't be an issue with this unprotected pick though in an ideal world they would like to get the sense of what the player is looking for.
8. Cleveland Indians - Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt
Third straight college arm in the first but this is a good one. Reports suggest that they are looking for an arm with this pick and are willing to spend but picking Gray here would allow them to sign more upside players in the later rounds and have multiple eggs in one basket not one boiling egg in one basket.
9. Chicago Cubs - Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow HS
Last year Chicago shocked everybody, even people that follow the draft form more that 30 years were shocked, so what are they gonna do for an encore? At least this year the name of the prospect they draft will be known prior to the selection. Archie Bradley would give the Cubs a high ceiling power arm in the mold of once uber Cubs prospect Kerry Wood. Bradley has a hefty price tag and an scholarship to play QB for OU but he is a better baseball prospect than football and the Cubs have the financial ability to pay the price
10. San Diego Padres (Whitson - unsigned) - Matt Barnes, RHP, UCONN
San Diego have been scouting Uconn lately this spring and Barnes has stood out. He had a good showing in the cape and team USA last summer. San Diego gets one of the better College pitchers in the draft and at this point is singable.
11. Houston Astros - Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech
A late rumor had the Astros trying to work a pre-deal with a lefty who ranks below the top 50 on many boards in Chris Reed but they shut down the rumor down and said they will go BPA. They've been on Jed Bradley all spring and would love to get him at this spot. They also like Archie Bradley(no relation) but he figures to be gone at this point.
12. Milwaukee Brewers - Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Spring Valley HS, SC
The rumor on this pick is that they are looking a pitching and like Barnes and Jed Bradley but both are gone. In a perfect world they'd prefer a college pitcher but the ones left are not superior to the HS arms that they been connected to. Guerrieri is one of them and his arsenal fits well with what the Brewers like.
13. New York Mets - Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas
This would the ideal pick for the Mets who have been on the Texas righty a lot this spring and should give the Mets another fast to the bigs RHP. Its been reported that the Mets will have a chance to spend in this draft but like in the case with the Indians, spreading the wealth is their likely path.
14. Florida Marlins - Levi Michael, SS, UNC
The Marlins have been connected to a host of college player this spring and it seems they want players that are gonna help then sooner rather than later. Michael fits that mold and reports suggest they've been on him this spring.
15. Milwaukee Brewers (Covey - unsigned) - Mikie Mahtook, OF, LSU
This would be and ideal pick for the Brewers who have been on Mahtook all spring. There have been scares lately that the Cubs and Marlins are looking at him so the Brewers may decide to go ahead with Mahtook with the 12th pick and wait for their pitcher with this pick.
16. Los Angeles Dodgers - Robert Stephenson, RHP, Alhambra HS
The Dodgers day-to-day operations are being watch by MLB and it doesn't look like that will be solved any time soon so whoever they pick her has to sign for slot. Last year the shocked everybody and went with the unsignable Zach Lee who ended up signing for a big bonus but the Dodgers can't do the same this year because MLB has to approve the bonus they give out and MLB won't approve an above slot bonus. If Stephenson signs for slot he's the likely pick and would be a very good pick under the circumstances.
17. Los Angeles Angels - Javier Baez, SS/3B, Arlington County Day School
The Angels are in the wait and see mode, they would love if HS athlete falls to them in this case Baez did. He has been getting a lot of buzz in the 9-17 picks but each team has different boards and its possible he's not #1 on that board until the 17th pick. This would give the Angels one of the better hitters in the draft.
18. Oakland Athletics - George Springer, OF, UConn
Dream scenario for the A's who covet College athletes. Springer is one of the best college athletes in a long time, he's a 5-tool CF with the ability and speed to stay in the position and offer big time power. He needs refinement with his hit tool but should be at least avg with it. He's a lot like Reds CF Drew Stubbs.
19. Boston Red Sox (V. Martinez - DET) - Josh Bell, OF, Jesuit HS
There have been a lot of talk about whether Bell is unsignable but I think he's this years Zach Lee and a lot of reports suggest that the Red Sox are one of the teams heavily interested in Bell. The Red Sox generally prefer to take singable player with their first pick but in this draft past tendencies are out of the waters. They have been talking a lot about this being the last draft for teams to sign player with high demands and are looking forward to take advantage of it for the last time. No other pick would signal this more than Bell.
20. Colorado Rockies - C.J. Cron, 1b, Utah
Most of the rumors regarding Colorado suggest they are looking at a college hitter and have been in on Cron for a while now. That would give them a power hitting 1B to replace Helton in a couple of years.
21. Toronto Blue Jays - Daniel Norris, LHP, Science Hill HS, Johnson City, Tenn
Toronto has been link with a host of players but Norris is the one that sounds the strongest. A high price tag has floated prior to the draft but that wont stop the Blue Jays from drafting him.
22. St. Louis Cardinals - Henry Owens, LHP, Edison HS, Calif.
The Cardinals would love to see Norris fall to them but the Blue Jays are hot and heavy after him making that scenario unlikely. They have been on Owens as an alternative and would likely scoop him up with this pick.
23. Washington Nationals (Dunn - CWS) - Alex Meyer, RHP, Kentucky
Fresh off getting Starling with their first pick the National would love it if a player they considered with the 6th pick falls to them. They are one of the teams that has been on him all spring and wouldn't pass him here.
24. Tampa Bay Rays (Crawford - BOS) - Jose Fernandez, RHP, Alonso HS
The Rays draft bonanza begins with a local high ceiling arm that they likely can sign. This draft will be property the Rays picking 10 times before Detroit gets to pick the Rays will likely diversify their portfolio and mix high upside picks with higher probability picks.
25. San Diego Padres - Cory Spangenberg, 3B/OF, Indiana Rivers JC
Like Washington, San Diego is very happy that a player they considered for the 10th pick fell to them at 25th. There have been a lot of chatter in the 14-20 range for Spagenberg but I have a lot of trouble placing him with a team and passing on higher rated talent. This is a more logical spot for him.
26. Boston Red Sox (Beltre - TEX) - Brandon Nimmo, OF, East HS, Cheyenne, Wyo
The Red Sox showed last year that they are not afraid of doing something they like in the draft. They went with four straight College players at the top of their draft not because they are overly conservative but because thats what the board gave them. Like wise they've been seen in Wyo checking out Nimmo and are one of the teams heavily interested.
27. Cincinnati Reds - Kolten Wong, 2B, Hawaii
The Reds are one of the teams hard to pegged for me. A lot of reports suggest they are in on college pitching but my guess is they wouldn't over draft someone just for the sake of of drafting a college pitcher. Wong would be higher than this in their board making it difficult for them to pass him up.
28. Atlanta Braves - Dwight Smith Jr., OF, McIntosh HS, Ga
Atlanta has had a lot of success drafting from their back yard and reports suggest they are looking a athletes in the draft. They have Smith high on their list and would need to get him now as he won't make it to their next pick.
29. San Francisco Giants - Joe Ross, RHP, Bishop O'Dowd HS, Oakland
A lot of reports suggest the Giants have made Ross their top target and would pounce on him if he's there. He has a UCLA commitment but the Giants have deep enough pockets to be able to sign the local product.
30. Minnesota Twins - Trevor story, SS, Irving HS, TX
The Twins have two traits for their first round pick. One is polish college strike throwers and high upside HS athletes. In this scenario I have them picking Story who is one of the better HS athletes in the draft and would give them an up the middle prospect. They have two picks in the supp round and could get a college arm comparable to the ones available here. They've been on Story and he probably is not available with their next pick.
31. Tampa Bay Rays (R. Soriano - NYY) - Brian Goodwin, OF, Miami Dade JC
Goodwin is one of the better athletes in the draft something the Rays covet. He started the spring slow but has recovered and is now getting interest in the back of the 1st round.
32. Tampa Bay Rays - Dillon Howard, RHP, Searcy HS
The Rays do well with HS arms and Howard is one of the better available. He also has a high price tag but the Rays figure to take a gamble with one of their first round picks. He fits their mold of project able HS arms and would give them another one in the 1st round.
33. Texas Rangers (C. Lee - PHI) - Travis Harrison, 3B/OF, Tustin HS
The Rangers have shown interest on Brandon Nimmo and would be high on their list with this pick but he's gone. They have shown interest in Harrison who is getting interest in the back of the first and would give them a power hitting HS bat. He's likely to command an above slot deal but the Rangers have enough money to get it done.
